The New England Patriots ride a seven-game winning streak into Week 11 and will put their stellar defense up against Justin Fields, Breece Hall and the New York Jets on Thursday night in Foxborough, Mass.
ODDS & TRENDS
The Patriots are a consensus 13.0-point favorite, making the Jets the only double-digit underdogs for Week 11. And that hasn’t deterred the public, with New England backed by 63% of the spread-line money at BetRivers. The Patriots’ moneyline has been predictably popular as well, drawing 85% of the money despite carrying -825 odds.
The Jets have lost 12 consecutive road games against AFC East rivals who had winning records entering the game. Interestingly, each of their past six road games have gone Over the total points line. That line is at 41.0 at BetRivers, where the Over has been backed by 72% of the money.
PROP PICKS
–Jets RB Breece Hall 15+ Receiving Yards (-130 at DraftKings): Of the 54 yards Fields threw for last week, 42 went to Hall on one play. With Garrett Wilson ailing and Fields struggling to throw the ball downfield, Hall is as integral to the passing game as he is to the ground attack. Friskier bettors can consider Hall at 25+ receiving yards at +173.
–Patriots WR Stefon Diggs Anytime TD (-148 at BetRivers): The veteran wideout has steadily developed chemistry with quarterback Drake Maye. After being held out of the end zone during his first seven games as a Patriot, Diggs has scored in three consecutive games while being targeted an average of 5.7 times per game.
INSIDE EDGE
The Patriots have been successful on a league-leading 58.6% of pass attempts with motion this season, according to Inside Edge’s Remarkable engine. Meanwhile, the Jets rank fourth-worst in having pressured opposing QBs on just 15.6% of their pass attempts with motion.
THE NEWS
The Patriots have benefited from a schedule that afforded victory laps against bottom-feeders New Orleans, Tennessee and Cleveland.
But the Patriots also beat Buffalo on the road during this stretch to seize the AFC East division lead — and they played four solid quarters Sunday to prevail 28-23 at NFC South-leading Tampa Bay. Maye threw for 270 yards and two touchdowns and his offensive line performed better, allowing just one sack after surrendering 16 over the three previous games.
The Patriots are angling for their first eight-game winning streak since 2019. That’s also the last time New England started a year 8-2 or better — Tom Brady’s final season in town.
“We never want to take the cheese and get into all that,” first-year Patriots coach Mike Vrabel said about his team’s national attention. “Certainly there’s a human element to it. When things are going good, you have to be able to prepare for things when they’re not.”
New England owns the best run defense in the league at just 79.2 yards allowed per game, which could force more passing downs for the struggling Fields.
Hall’s season has run hot and cold, but he’s 10th in the league at 664 rushing yards and he put up 133 yards and two TDs in the Jets’ Week 8 win over Cincinnati. He also took the go-ahead touchdown catch to the house in a 27-20 victory over Cleveland.
“He’s that man,” Fields said. “It’s simple. He’s that man.”
The Jets need Fields to be the man as well.
Any hopes of ending their 14-year postseason drought have evaporated, but New York has stuck with Fields over veteran Tyrod Taylor at the most important position.
Both head coaches have experienced the Jets-Pats rivalry as players — the Jets’ Aaron Glenn with the Jets from 1994-2001, Vrabel from 2001-08 at the outset of the Brady era. The Pats won 15 in a row against the Jets from 2016-23, but the Jets broke that drought at the end of the 2023 season and split the two meetings last year as well.
INJURY REPORT
The Patriots’ biggest injury concerns are in their backfield. Rookie TreVeyon Henderson (430 yards) has a knee injury but practiced in full for two days and didn’t receive an injury designation Wednesday. Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) will miss his third straight game, and third-stringer Terrell Jennings (knee) is questionable.
New England receiver Kayshon Boutte (hamstring), linebacker Christian Elliss (hip) and tight end Austin Hooper (concussion) will sit out. Defensive lineman Joshua Farmer (ankle) is questionable.
The Jets will reportedly be without Wilson (knee) for 3-4 weeks, though Glenn left media at his press conference baffled by directing them to find out which players are injured by grilling the reporter who broke the Wilson re-injury news.
New York also ruled out cornerback Azareye’h Thomas (concussion) and listed five players as questionable: defensive linemen Harrison Phillips (foot), Braiden McGregor (shoulder) and Will McDonald IV (quad), offensive lineman Xavier Newman (ankle) and running back Khalil Herbert (groin).
THEY SAID IT
–“I don’t care if it’s three games. I don’t care if it’s one game. We just want to win. The more you win, the more confidence you get as a player, the more confidence you get as a team. That’s the only thing that we care about.” –Glenn
–“That didn’t show up at all. I saw an energy, I saw excitement that jumped off the screen. This will be a challenge. I know they’ll be ready to go on the road and we’ll have to continue to prepare and ultimately play well.” –Vrabel, who said the Jets don’t look like a team on tape that traded away two top defensive players.
PREDICTION
The Patriots get another of the NFL’s bottom feeders to aid in their quest to win eight consecutive games. The Jets escaped with a very meager passing offense last week but Fields’ struggles to push the ball downfield leave Hall sledding uphill against the league’s top-ranked run defense by a big stretch to this point. –Patriots 27, Jets 16
